Use case · what-if
PLAY OUT A WHAT-IF
Give the twins a piece of news that has not happened yet, then ask. Set the reading next to the same question without it and see what shifts.
What you get
News as the condition
Write the event as news the whole place has heard, and ask the question after it.
Against its own baseline
Read the same question with and without the event and look at the gap.
Two events head to head
An A/B puts two versions of the event in front of the same twins.
Watch the interval
A shift smaller than the interval is not a shift; the result says so.
Studies you could run
Residents
After a transit fare increase is announced, do you support the downtown plan?
A reading shows: Whether support moves against the same question with no announcement, and in which groups.
Residents
After a new employer announces it is opening here, do you expect rents to rise?
A reading shows: Whether renters and homeowners move the same way.
Businesses
After a new minimum-wage rule is announced, do you expect to add employees?
A reading shows: Which sectors lean away from hiring after the news compared with before it.
Questions
- Who answers?
- Simulated twins of the place’s population. Each twin is modeled on the real make-up of the place — age, household, work, housing — and weighted back to it.
- Is this a forecast of what will happen?
- No. It shows how the simulated place reads a question once it has heard the news, set against the same question without it.
- How do I know a shift is real?
- Read the interval. When the gap is inside it, the result says the two readings are too close to separate.
- Can I use real news?
- Yes. Paste the item as the event. A live reading may also see recent local headlines; past-question checks never do.
Bring us the scenario decision.
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